For the past 2 years, we all know LSU's lack of offense has been the #1 issue. However, defense has also been a big issue since the undergraduate exodus in 2011. IMO, fixing the offense helps, but putting a more dominant defense on the field is equally important. Since 2012, LSU has been lacking the defensive "killer instinct". Blown coverages, lack of goal line stands, and not keeping pressure on QB's are all signs of LSU's drop off in defensive dominance.
There several opinions for the drop off, but I won't get into that. The bottom line is that Defenses DO win championships. With 7 Sr's, 9 returning starters, and one of the top DC's in the country, LSU defense is poised to return to the dominance of 2011. An aggressive D is critical IMO because that is the way to create turnovers.
At the same time, LSU's offense needs to be unpredictable, and consistently attack weaknesses in opposing D's. If they do that, AND don't turn the ball over (Miles has always been right about turnovers) Leonard Fournette and crew will do the rest. Ultimately LSU's QB play and the passing game need to find a way to keep the chains moving against the best of the best, and put points on the board. Consistent 3 and outs are not acceptable. Execution in the passing game must improve.
Here are the point spreads and turnover margins between offense and defense over the past 10 years:
.........Pts/gm....Pts/allowed.....Spread......TO Margin...........Record
2006....33.7.........12.6............+21.1.............+0....................11-2 Sugar Bowl
2007....38.6.........19.9............+18.7...........+20....................12-2 National Champs
2008....30.9.........24.2..............+6.7.............+1......................9-4 Chicken Bowl
2009....24.8.........16.2..............+8.6.............+8....................11-2 Capital One
2010....29.7.........18.2............+12.2.............+8....................11-2 Cotton Bowl
2011....37.7.........11.3............+26.4...........+20....................13-1 National Runner-up
2012....29.8.........17.5............+12.3...........+16....................10-3 Chicken Bowl
2013....35.8.........22.0............+13.8.............+0....................10-3 Outback Bowl
2014....27.6.........17.5............+10.1.............+3......................8-5 Music City Bowl
2015....32.8.........24.2..............+8.6.............+7......................9-3 Texas Bowl
FYI........the numbers in red are substandard IMO, and the numbers in blue are good. As you can see LSU has not "put it all together" since 2011, although 2012 was close. The close loss to Bama was a killer.
The bottom line is that the point spread AND the TO margin must be high in order to have a chance at the NC.
My projection of what's needed for 2016:
35pt/gm.........17pts/allowed.......+18 spread............+12 TO Margin ?????????
With all that being said, Bama averaged 227 yds a game passing last year, and won it all with a stout D. Their only loss was due to 5 turnovers.
Bama 2015.......35.1..........15.1............+20.0............+10.............14-1 National Champs
There several opinions for the drop off, but I won't get into that. The bottom line is that Defenses DO win championships. With 7 Sr's, 9 returning starters, and one of the top DC's in the country, LSU defense is poised to return to the dominance of 2011. An aggressive D is critical IMO because that is the way to create turnovers.
At the same time, LSU's offense needs to be unpredictable, and consistently attack weaknesses in opposing D's. If they do that, AND don't turn the ball over (Miles has always been right about turnovers) Leonard Fournette and crew will do the rest. Ultimately LSU's QB play and the passing game need to find a way to keep the chains moving against the best of the best, and put points on the board. Consistent 3 and outs are not acceptable. Execution in the passing game must improve.
Here are the point spreads and turnover margins between offense and defense over the past 10 years:
.........Pts/gm....Pts/allowed.....Spread......TO Margin...........Record
2006....33.7.........12.6............+21.1.............+0....................11-2 Sugar Bowl
2007....38.6.........19.9............+18.7...........+20....................12-2 National Champs
2008....30.9.........24.2..............+6.7.............+1......................9-4 Chicken Bowl
2009....24.8.........16.2..............+8.6.............+8....................11-2 Capital One
2010....29.7.........18.2............+12.2.............+8....................11-2 Cotton Bowl
2011....37.7.........11.3............+26.4...........+20....................13-1 National Runner-up
2012....29.8.........17.5............+12.3...........+16....................10-3 Chicken Bowl
2013....35.8.........22.0............+13.8.............+0....................10-3 Outback Bowl
2014....27.6.........17.5............+10.1.............+3......................8-5 Music City Bowl
2015....32.8.........24.2..............+8.6.............+7......................9-3 Texas Bowl
FYI........the numbers in red are substandard IMO, and the numbers in blue are good. As you can see LSU has not "put it all together" since 2011, although 2012 was close. The close loss to Bama was a killer.
The bottom line is that the point spread AND the TO margin must be high in order to have a chance at the NC.
My projection of what's needed for 2016:
35pt/gm.........17pts/allowed.......+18 spread............+12 TO Margin ?????????
With all that being said, Bama averaged 227 yds a game passing last year, and won it all with a stout D. Their only loss was due to 5 turnovers.
Bama 2015.......35.1..........15.1............+20.0............+10.............14-1 National Champs
