When you have a historically bad rush defense and a historically good back, numbers can come out to an amazing expectation. Without puffery or big plays, exactly what would LF7 rush for if both teams performance for the year translate logically into LF7"s rushing yards.
Let's walk through this for fun.I will hit the raw numbers and then the relative numbers to predict LF7's rushing yards vs. TT. I think I ran through this same analysis for the Eastern Mich game.
Now on to LF7. Of LSU's 2705 yds rushing this year, LF7 rushed for 1741 yds. So LF7 accounts for 64.4% of LSU rushing yards.
LF7, therefore will rush for 64.4% times 374.5 or 241 yards vs. Texas Tech. If you look at the range of expectations (359 yds to 390 yds) for total LSU rushing yds, you can expect LF7 to rush somewhere between 231 yds and 251 yds.
So in a game just reflecting the teams performances for the year, LF7's range of likely numbers reaches above LSU's single game rushing record of 250 yds.
That's how bad TT's rushing defense is in relation to LSU and LF7. Of course you never know what will happen. There are only so many yards to be gained and Derrius breaking a few long ones could eat up LF7's share.
CAVEAT AND WARNING: THIS SAME MATH CAME OUT TO 474 YDS RUSHING AGAINST EASTERN MICHIGAN.
Let's walk through this for fun.I will hit the raw numbers and then the relative numbers to predict LF7's rushing yards vs. TT. I think I ran through this same analysis for the Eastern Mich game.
- Texas Tech has given up 271.8 yards rushing per game. They have done this against teams that collectively average offensive rushing yards of 186.2 yds per game. Logical expectation is that they will give up 146% (271.8 divided by 186.2) of their opponents normal rushing output.
- LSU has gained 245.9 yds rushing per game.... ergo LSU should rush for 245.9 times 146% or a total of 359 yds.
- Even worse looking at it the other way. LSU has run for 245.9 yards per game vs teams that collectively have allowed only 171.4 yds per game. Again, logically you could expect LSU to run for 143.5% (245.9 divided by 171.4) of what their opponent normally gives up on the ground,
- Texas Tech gives 271.8 yards per game..... ergo LSU should rush for 271.8 times 143.5% yds rushing or a total of 390 yards.
Now on to LF7. Of LSU's 2705 yds rushing this year, LF7 rushed for 1741 yds. So LF7 accounts for 64.4% of LSU rushing yards.
LF7, therefore will rush for 64.4% times 374.5 or 241 yards vs. Texas Tech. If you look at the range of expectations (359 yds to 390 yds) for total LSU rushing yds, you can expect LF7 to rush somewhere between 231 yds and 251 yds.
So in a game just reflecting the teams performances for the year, LF7's range of likely numbers reaches above LSU's single game rushing record of 250 yds.
That's how bad TT's rushing defense is in relation to LSU and LF7. Of course you never know what will happen. There are only so many yards to be gained and Derrius breaking a few long ones could eat up LF7's share.
CAVEAT AND WARNING: THIS SAME MATH CAME OUT TO 474 YDS RUSHING AGAINST EASTERN MICHIGAN.
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