Gents, I had a couple cups of coffee this morning, dug around for a while, and came up with the closest I could estimate to a consensus for the current CFP projection. One interesting thing that I learned is that it's not the Big 4 Conference Champions that get a bye, it's the Champions of top four conferences. If Boise wins out, the Big12 would lose it's bye and it would go to the Mountain West.
The following teams are listed as virtual locks (better than 90% chance):
1) Oregon
2) Ohio State
3) Penn State
4) Texas
5) Indiana
6) Georgia
7) Notre Dame
Likely (60% of better):
8) SMU
9) Boise
10) Miami
11) Tennessee
The rest in order of chance (1 or 2 will most likely get in, 3 is unlikely):
Bama
Tulane
Iowa State
Arizona State
BYU
Clemson
USCe (this would be cool)
UNLV
Army
Colorado
No one else has any realistic path to the CFP (under 5% chance)
If Boise and Tulane win out (and both are projected to win out), Tulane and the Big12 Champion get in from the bottom list and one of the top 11 teams is out. Most likely one of Miami or SMU would be left out. So, my projection after reading 6 or 7 sites this morning is as follows (this includes guessing at the conference championship game winners):
Top 4 seeds with byes would be Big10, SEC, ACC, & the Mountain West
1) Ohio State
2) Texas
3) SMU
4) Boise
5) Notre Dame
6) Oregon
7) Georgia
8) Penn State
9) Tennessee
10) Indiana
11) Tulane
12) Iowa State
Let's hear some other and dissenting opinions...
The following teams are listed as virtual locks (better than 90% chance):
1) Oregon
2) Ohio State
3) Penn State
4) Texas
5) Indiana
6) Georgia
7) Notre Dame
Likely (60% of better):
8) SMU
9) Boise
10) Miami
11) Tennessee
The rest in order of chance (1 or 2 will most likely get in, 3 is unlikely):
Bama
Tulane
Iowa State
Arizona State
BYU
Clemson
USCe (this would be cool)
UNLV
Army
Colorado
No one else has any realistic path to the CFP (under 5% chance)
If Boise and Tulane win out (and both are projected to win out), Tulane and the Big12 Champion get in from the bottom list and one of the top 11 teams is out. Most likely one of Miami or SMU would be left out. So, my projection after reading 6 or 7 sites this morning is as follows (this includes guessing at the conference championship game winners):
Top 4 seeds with byes would be Big10, SEC, ACC, & the Mountain West
1) Ohio State
2) Texas
3) SMU
4) Boise
5) Notre Dame
6) Oregon
7) Georgia
8) Penn State
9) Tennessee
10) Indiana
11) Tulane
12) Iowa State
Let's hear some other and dissenting opinions...
